Have we seen the Bottom in the Economy?

Retail sales came out worse than expected today, bringing into question how the 2nd quarter of the year will turn out. Purchases fell 1.1%, with only pharmacies and grocery stores posting a gain. After a five week rally, this type of data shows that we may still have some time before the economy turns for good. Some analysts blamed the extremely large job losses in recent months as the cause of the consumer's inability to quickly bounce back, perhaps indicating the worst of the recession has yet to be seen.

At the same time, Bernanke and Obama have spoken in favor of the long term outlook for the economy. In either case, after the strong market we have seen in recent weeks, a short-market position or at least a partial hedge seems very appropriate.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a_vFy3PVrCB4&refer=news