... then why is bank credit at the highest level its been since 1979? Take a look at the chart above which is taken from U of M Professor Mark Perry's Carpe Diem blog. Something about what we are hearing from CNBC and Bloomberg isn't matching up with the data.
Also, with another better than expected piece of economic data today (Macroeconomic Advisors' job data for March), CNBC economist Steve Liesman remarked, "We did 0.6% (growth in Q4) and with the data out recently its looking like we'll do 0.8-1% in Q1." If 0.8-1% is becoming the consensus number for Q1 then the recession fears will have proved to be way overdone and the market will have to continue its rally. Sometime things don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better than most in the markets thought.
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1 comment:
I think that we have developed 2 different opinions of the term "recession". Macoreconomists have specifc markers (like GDP growth) which create specific parameters. Traders and hedge funds have a more arbitrary interpretation of recessions. I think that most people get lost in this recession debate without thinking about how they define a recession.
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