Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Recession-proof? Think twice before you jump in

It's always an interesting discussion of what is recession-proof and what is not. There is certainly no fine line or dictionary description of one or the other. As we saw in AAPL's stellar earnings yesterday, iphones and expensive computers CAN be recession proof. Or the argument that people gamble when they're feeling depressed about the finances. Really? LVS doesn't think so nor do their shareholders. Below is their chart.

As Paul Kedrosky points out in his blog, there are some segments in the economy that are more recession proof than others. He gives this chart by Nielsen.

From what he suggests, go long pasta and short KO and PEP. I'll go ahead and say that nothing is recession proof. MCD reported today a great quarter but there are still worries about the upcoming quarters and how unemployment will affect their numbers. Are people really questioning the dollar menu? Is that not recession-proof enough? WOW. Times are tough. Be picky. Be nimble.

2 comments:

Kyle Wolfe said...

The dollar menu isn't such a great deal if the weak economy brings down food prices.

I don't particularly like the term recession proof because it implies that investing in those companies won't give you a negative return but as you can tell by this bear market nothing is really safe. Some stocks just do "less worse" in a recession.

Penny Stock Newsletter said...

Nothing is recession proof nothing. Recession resistant thats another matter.