Dow to 15,000 by Jan 1, 2009?

Brian Wesbury at FirstTrust Advisors thinks so. An excerpt:

To determine fair value for stocks we use a capitalized profits approach, taking government figures on profits based on corporate tax filings and then discounting those profits with a 6% 10-year Treasury yield. We use a 6% 10-year yield because we believe bond yields are being held artificially low today by the Fed. By using a higher bond yield than necessary as a discount rate, we are taking a conservative stance. This model suggests that the market is undervalued by 25% today. With the economy picking up steam in 2008, our forecast is that the Dow moves up as well and our year-end 2008 forecast is 15,000, with the S&P 500 at 1625.
Once recession fears prove unfounded, US equities will soar. Those who maintain their appetite for risk will be richly rewarded sooner than they think.

(HT: Mark Perry)

At the same time, Wesbury was taken to task by Jim Cramer for his poor forecasting performance during the past few months on yesterday's Squawk on the Street.