Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Which Came First: The US or ROW?

Article from Bloomberg this morning highlighting the concerns about a slowing economy in the US affecting growth in Germany: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag2J_a2HHD6o&refer=home

What's important to consider is whether a sluggish US economy still can pull the entire ROW (rest of world) into a serious slowdown beside it. Of course, the US economy remains the largest in the world and must, by definition, affect the world's economy, but I'm not sure if there is a new paradigm where the international economy can stand on its own if we falter. A large part of my positive investment forecast, particularly regarding large, multinational companies, relies on strong growth abroad so this is an important issue to keep an eye on.

Its also going to be interesting to watch the interplay in the currency markets between the USD and the Euro if the ECB joins the Fed in its recession-proofing mood.

ALSO: See this post from Professor Mark Perry on global growth and US recessions: http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/01/globalization-makes-us-economy.html